Tikvah
Editors’ Pick

January 15, 2026

Iran’s Post-Ayatollah Future

Regime change is inevitable.

Whatever happens in Iran over the next few weeks (or even the next few hours), the country’s political system, according to Can Kasapoglu, cannot endure. The eighty-six-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, will not live forever. In Kasapoglu’s view, even if Khamenei weathers the current storm, after his death real power will shift to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s elite, ideologically driven paramilitary. 

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