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March 10, 2020

Why Turkey Intervened in Syria, and Why an All-Out War Is Unlikely

Russia still holds most of the cards.

Last December, Bashar al-Assad’s forces, together with their Iranian and Russian allies, began a second major offensive into the northwestern province of Idlib, the country’s last major rebel stronghold. A few weeks later, Ankara—which until now has supported various rebel groups but kept its own intervention minimal—took an active role in the conflict, with its troops engaging in direct and extended clashes with Assad’s. Why, asks Jonathan Spyer, has Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan taken this particular moment to join in the fighting, when the civil war could very well be nearing an end?

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