What Happens If the Cease-Fire Holds, and If It Doesn’t
Assessing a war that might not be over.
April 10, 2026
Small-town police outposts matter.
In trying to assess the outcome of the war—if indeed it is over—one place to look is not at the toll it has taken on Iran’s military might, but at its ability to repress its own people. Those with access to information on the ground assess that over 100 sites tied to the internal security forces have been struck, thousands of officers killed, and many thousands more wounded. Amirhadi Anvari notes that the apparatus of repression has been degraded at every level, and draws particular attention to what has happened outside of Tehran:
Assessing a war that might not be over.
Small-town police outposts matter.
From American and international perspectives.
How can you be mad at me when you could be mad at Jews?
Rabbi Samuel ben Meir of Troyes.
In trying to assess the outcome of the war—if indeed it is over—one place to look is not at the toll it has taken on Iran’s military might, but at its ability to repress its own people. Those with access to information on the ground assess that over 100 sites tied to the internal security forces have been struck, thousands of officers killed, and many thousands more wounded. Amirhadi Anvari notes that the apparatus of repression has been degraded at every level, and draws particular attention to what has happened outside of Tehran:
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