The Policies of October 6 Kept Israel Safe—Until They Didn’t

Politicians who inherited a policy they opposed but cannot reverse have little incentive to make it work.

In my original essay on the failed concepts that brought Israel to the catastrophe of October 7, 2023, I asked to focus on the big mental models that had failed, not the tactical and intelligence failures on that deadly Saturday morning. This isn’t because tactical failures are unimportant and weren’t fateful, but rather because they don’t tell the whole story. I specifically drew attention to four big conceptual failures and the way the interaction between them became so disastrous.

I thought (and still believe) that the most original contribution I was making was in my discussion of the fourth conceptual failure, that of the international community and its construction of anti-sovereign entities around Israel, each in its own way almost purpose-built to entrench and exacerbate conflict rather than mitigate or even resolve it.

I was disappointed that my critics in this symposium focused only on the first three concepts. Nevertheless I thank them for reading my essay and sharing their thoughts. I’ll address a few of their critiques directly, but first I should make some general comments.