Nothing in the Middle East Happens by Accident—Except When It Does

It is not often that one agrees with the general conclusion of a thesis and rejects its premise. But in reading Michael Doran’s essay, “Our Man in Moscow,” that is where I find myself. His conclusions about the implications of the Obama administration’s approach to Syria for Russia’s positions in the region and beyond it in Europe are, I believe, generally correct. There can be little doubt that America’s traditional partners in the Middle East do feel the need—as Doran suggests—to establish a “productive working relationship with Moscow,” and that Putin now has far greater influence in the region as a whole.

Whether this will remain true over time is a different question, particularly because the next president can do much to alter this reality. However, although Putin has surely gained in response to President Obama’s hesitancy in Syria, Doran seeks to explain that Obama has been driven by a deliberate strategy to make Russia and Iran part of a concert of powers aimed at fostering a new order in the Middle East. In other words, Putin’s gain is not the result of the lack of a strategy on the part of the president—or his fear of getting sucked into what he perceived as a quagmire in Syria—but the consequence of a very conscious design to make Russia and Iran arbiters in the region.

I know that for many in the Middle East, nothing happens by accident. That is why I have often said that in the Middle East, conspiracy is like oxygen and everyone breathes it. But American policy analysts should know better. Contrary to Doran’s thesis, President Obama’s policy was not part of some grand plan that he kept hidden from the American public and those working for him.