No Surprise: Surprise Was Indeed the Key Element of the Yom Kippur War

This year, Israel marked the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which began on October 6, 1973. As the anniversary approached, Israel’s national archive released new materials, books and articles were published, and conferences and seminars were held at which academics, generals, and veterans debated the causes of the war, its trajectory, and its consequences. Pundits offered explanations for the setbacks Israel suffered in the initial phase of the war. Suggestions were made regarding whom to blame: the government, the intelligence services, the generals, the air force, Kissinger, or Nixon.

Fast forward to this year. Early Shabbat morning, October 7, 2023, on the Jewish holiday Simchat Torah (Hebrew for “joy of Torah”), Hamas conducted a devastating surprise attack on Israel from Gaza that resulted in the worst Jewish massacres in a single day since the Holocaust and the evacuation of the largest number of Jewish villages and towns since the 1948 War of Independence. As of this writing, the war rages on, and the IDF has begun a ground offensive into Gaza. None of this would have happened had Israel’s intelligence provided an early warning about the anticipated attack, a warning that would have allowed the IDF to deploy enough troops to repel it.

Surprise is a key element of war. Since the dawn of history, every commander who led an army into battle has tried to surprise his enemy, knowing that doing so can ensure victory or at least a considerable advantage in the opening phases of a campaign. Great efforts have always been invested in deception activities to create the conditions for surprise.